Tag: Intrade
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A Romney-Biden Presidency? Scenarios for an Electoral College Meltdown
Last month I published a post "predicting" a tie in the electoral college vote. (My 2012 Electoral College Prediction) On MSNBC's Daily Rundown this morning, Chuck Todd had an interesting piece on a tie in the Electoral College. I see that Intrade gives a 5% chance of a tie; that is 1 in 20. Several…
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Intrade Betting is Suspicious
FiveThirtyEight: Intrade Betting is Suspicious (HT: Greg Mankiw) In the past few weeks, I've done posts about Intrade and the presidential election. Here is an interesting piece on alleged discrepancies. There's something funny going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts. Right now, Obama is trading at…
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Intrade: Obama Widens Lead to 18 Electoral Votes
We are now six weeks from the presidential election. Last week I did my initial post on Intrade and the presidential election. During the 2004 election, Intrade picked the presidential race correctly in every state but Alaska. It picked every senatorial race correctly in 2006. According to state-by-state Intrade markets, Barack Obama will win by…
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Intrade: Obama Wins by 8 Electoral Votes
Greg Mankiw and several other economists frequently reference Intrade in discussing economic and political events. If you are unfamiliar with Intrade, you could describe it as a futures market for either/or events. Here is how it works. Intrade works through $10 contracts. You think there is a 60% chance Obama will win the presidential election.…