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Putin fears hue and cry of Orange Revolution

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by

mwkruse
in , , ,

I wrote recently about the Fourth Turning as an age of crisis. According to William Strauss and Neil Howe, we have just entered that period. Lately, Americans have been almost consumed with national events, terrorism, and events in Iraq. A few days ago, I posted an article about growing unrest about change coming too slowly in China. I read in the paper today that it appears that Bolivia has elected a socialist president who has vowed not to cooperate with the US on stopping coca production. Then I read this article, Putin fears hue and cry of Orange Revolution, which gives a good summary of events happening in Russia.

Moscow no longer is capital of the other global superpower. Its power has declined, its reach receded, its influence waned. Nonetheless it is a country of 145 million people with a vast Eurasian landmass, great reserves of oil and gas, a decaying but nonetheless threatening nuclear arsenal, and continuing aspirations to be a major global force. We ignore the retreat of freedom in Russia at our own peril.

Add France's difficulties with a pluralist society, and it seems we have a volatile mix at work worldwide. There have always been volatile events in the world, but what Strauss and Howe maintain is key is the way a particular generational configuration (i.e., turning) is likely to respond to events. Our present American configuration historically tends to push things to a crisis.

Comments

3 responses to “Putin fears hue and cry of Orange Revolution”

  1. will spotts Avatar
    will spotts

    Interesting comments.
    Obviously, you have shunned the pure fatalism latent in generational theory. I’m curious how you see this configuration contributing to instability.
    I concur that there are many “worrisome” signs, but I’m a far way from predicting events.
    One interesting phenomenon from a sociological point of view is what you spoke of in your series on social indicators: there seems to be a widespread feeling of decline — but also of almost “waiting for something to happen”. As significant as 9/11 may have been (or may prove in hindsight to have been), it doesn’t quite fit the bill — it didn’t seem to release the general sense of forboding. This “sense” I’m describing seemed apparent in the 90’s — and has only increased since.

    Reply
  2. Michael Kruse Avatar
    Michael Kruse

    I don’t really have in any scenario in mind. It just seems that many of the great powers in the world are entering periods of great unrest. That in and of itself is not all that new. The difference is the configuration of generations that exist right know and how they are prone to act.
    I live in tornado alley. About April or May days come where warm humid air collides with a cold air mass. The sky sometimes turns an eerie green and clouds start moving in an odd manner. It doesn’t mean there will be a tornado but all the conditions are ripe for one. That is more or less my point with observing what is happening on the national and international fronts. The conditions are ripe for major crisis.

    Reply
  3. will spotts Avatar
    will spotts

    Fair enough. (Being something of a weather fan, I like the illustration.)
    It occurred to me tonight: this hypothesis of generational turnings reminds me of birth order except on a macro scale.

    Reply

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