China Needs to Get Rich Before It Gets Too Old is an interesting article at Bloomberg.com. Columnist Andy Mukerjee gives several demographic variables not working in China's favor as it tries to grow its economy, not the least of which is a rapidly increasing dependency ratio.
Qiao's research shows that China's dependency ratio — the number of people too young and too old to work divided by the working-age population — will start rising at the end of this decade and approach 50 percent in 2030, from less than 40 percent at present, making China as gray as Japan was last year.
By 2050, every 10 Chinese workers in the age group of 15 to 64 will support a total of seven younger and older people — a dependency ratio of 70 percent.
An aging society may be an inevitable part of demographic transition, though “what makes China's case unique is that the sharp rise in dependency ratio will arrive earlier in terms of per capita income level relative to other countries,'' Qiao says in her report.
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