I had the privilege of hearing Dr. Mart Laar, former prime minister of Estonia, present in Grand Rapids last month. Estonia is a former Soviet republic situated on the Baltic Sea that, largely due to Dr. Laar’s leadership, is experiencing tremendous growth and prosperity.
In the question and answer time after the presentation, he was asked what he saw as the biggest threat in the world. He acknowledged terrorism as a problem but did not see it as the biggest problem on the horizon. He believes the biggest problem on the horizon is China.
Laar believes that the growing economy and experiment with limited free markets will eventually precipitate a crisis. Eventually, those with increased prosperity will demand the rule of law, expanded property rights, and an end to corruption. What will the totalitarian government of China do? Laar suspects they will crack down, and the economic expansion China has experienced, and the trade benefits her trade partners have garnered, will likely evaporate. This could precipitate a global crisis. Unfortunately, Laar thinks this is the least scary of two likely scenarios.
The other possibility is that China will successfully become a world economic power through trade while keeping its corrupt and totalitarian institutions intact. As a student of history, Laar warns that any time a totalitarian regime is married with economic power, the same result always happens: A drive for expansion.
I was reflecting on these remarks while reading Presbyweb yesterday. First, there was One-child policy activist to be prosecuted, about Chen Guangcheng, a 34-year-old activist who exposed how corrupt local authorities have abused people in enforcing the “one child” policy and is now being persecuted for his efforts. Then China condemns six Protestant pastors to death without proof from Asia News. I have also read articles in recent months about growing unrest in rural areas over the lack of land reform and the granting of property rights to farmers. I have been to Beijing, and I know many who travel to China’s showcase cities where the government puts on a good show about reform and openness. They are counting on the 2008 Olympics to impress the world with their openness. The big question is what is happening behind the scenes. Like Laar, I suspect that something will have to give way one way or the other, and I expect we will see it within the next decade or so.
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