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Evangelicals Behaving Badly with Statistics

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mwkruse
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Christianity Today: Evangelicals Behaving Badly with Statistics by Christian Smith (HT Presbyweb)

American evangelicals, who profess to be committed to Truth, are among the worst abusers of simple descriptive statistics, which claim to represent the truth about reality, of any group I have ever seen. At stake in this misuse are evangelicals' own integrity, credibility with outsiders, and effectiveness in the world. It is an issue worth making a fuss over. And so I write.

By simple descriptive statistics I mean elementary ways of quantifying differences in the world, such as percentages and averages describing distributions and trends in populations. Now, I am not among those who believe that the ability to quantify is the true test of authoritative knowledge. I am not even a quantoid-geek type of sociologist. But I do think that statistics can often usefully represent what is going on in reality. They can help to get at what seems to be true about what is actual. So statistics are well worth doing well and getting right.

Of course statistics are generally well known for their misuse. Anyone can easily twist, misrepresent, and lie with statistics. And it takes a bit of basic knowledge for even well meaning people to avoid common statistical pitfalls. But none of that exempts evangelicals from having to use statistics responsibly. The problem is, they often do not.

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…But I find the misuse of statistics described above appalling. If this were an isolated incident, it might be excusable. But, having been a watcher of evangelicalism for many years, I know that this is not an aberrant case. Evangelical leaders and organizations routinely use descriptive statistics in sloppy, unwarranted, misrepresenting, and sometimes absolutely preposterous ways, usually to get attention and sound alarms, at least some of which are false alarms….

Comments

5 responses to “Evangelicals Behaving Badly with Statistics”

  1. brad wright Avatar
    brad wright

    Christian Smith is on to something here… the first paragraph certainly sets the stage for why Evangelicals should care a lot about the accuracy of statistics!

    Reply
  2. Michael Kruse Avatar
    Michael Kruse

    Amen! Accuracy and responsible interpretation.

    Reply
  3. Ted Gossard Avatar
    Ted Gossard

    If this is the sad truth, I think we need to go back to people we can find today, who like George Mueller in the past, are meticulous to tell the truth, and not overstate anything. Maybe we need a revolution of understating these kind of things.
    This surely demonstrates a lack of faith in God, along with other problems.

    Reply
  4. Michael Kruse Avatar
    Michael Kruse

    Ted, I have been framing a series of posts that talks about science and complexity, inspired by something I read from Anthony Giddens. I think it goes partly to the use of statistics but at the core I think you are exactly right. The truth is often multifaceted and we are all finite and prone to err. Our aim should be the truth but what I sense all too often is either laziness or a willful ignorance that merely gleans whatever data supports a preconceived position and then turns that data into fundamental doctrine.

    Reply
  5. will spotts Avatar
    will spotts

    “Our aim should be the truth but what I sense all too often is either laziness or a willful ignorance that merely gleans whatever data supports a preconceived position and then turns that data into fundamental doctrine.”
    As you’ve no doubt discovered – question the data and you become a heretic.

    Reply

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