Pew Forum: Religion and the Presidential Vote: A Tale of Two Gaps
For the presidential candidates and the pundits who write about them, one concern in the 2008 campaign is the "religion gap" – shorthand for the religious differences between Republican and Democratic voters. An analysis of national exit polls from 2004 shows there is not one but two religion gaps – one based on religious affiliation and the other based on frequency of attendance at worship services. Recent surveys by the Pew Research Center provide evidence that both of these religion gaps are at work as the public evaluates the candidates for the 2008 presidential race. The surveys also indicate that the Democrats may be doing better than they did in 2004 among some religious groups.
Candidates have long recognized religious affiliation as a significant factor in American elections. In the 1940s, for example, Catholics tended to vote Democratic and mainline Protestants tended to vote Republican. A similar gap now exists between white evangelical Protestants, who are strongly Republican, and black Protestants, who are strongly Democratic.
In the last three decades, however, a second religion gap has appeared, this one based on frequency of attendance at worship services. Voters who report attending religious services at least once a week – regardless of religious affiliation – tend to vote more Republican. Those who say they attend religious services less often (termed "less observant" for the purpose of this analysis) tend to vote more Democratic. …
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