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Shift in Evangelical Votes?

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mwkruse
in

Wall Street Journal: What Saddleback's Pastor Really Thinks About Politics

'Overhyped." That's how the Rev. Rick Warren describes the notion that the evangelical vote is "up for grabs" in this election. But what about the significance of the evangelical left, I asked the pastor of Saddleback Church after his forum with the presidential candidates last weekend. "This big," he says, holding his thumb and forefinger about an inch apart.

Sitting on a small stone patio outside the church's "green room," I question him further — has he heard that the Democratic Party is changing its abortion platform? "Window dressing," he replies. "Too little, too late." But Rev. Jim Wallis, the self-described progressive evangelical, has been saying that the change is a big victory. "Jim Wallis is a spokesman for the Democratic Party," Mr. Warren responds dismissively. "His book reads like the party platform." …

Related: Dallas Morning News: Obama's support from religious voters no better than Kerry's in '04

Despite months of intensive outreach, Barack Obama is doing no better among religious voters in the presidential race than fellow Democrat John Kerry did four years ago, according to a new survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.

Mr. Obama has the support of 24 percent of white Christians who say they are born-again or evangelical – the same percentage Mr. Kerry had, according to the national poll taken in July and August. Republican John McCain's support, 68 percent, is about the same as President Bush's in August 2004.

Mr. Obama has lost a few percentage points compared with Mr. Kerry among white mainline Protestants, Catholics and the religiously unaffiliated. Only among black Protestants does he beat Mr. Kerry.

But none of the changes are more than a few percentage points. And enthusiasm for Mr. McCain among religious conservatives is significantly less than that for Mr. Bush in summer 2004.

For instance, only 28 percent of white evangelical Protestants say they back Mr. McCain "strongly," compared with 57 percent who expressed strong support four years ago for Mr. Bush. …

Comments

5 responses to “Shift in Evangelical Votes?”

  1. VanSkaamper Avatar
    VanSkaamper

    Obama’s track record on abortion (and his answer to Warren’s question at the Saddleback event, IMHO) are very, very tough sells, even to a liberal evangelical crowd. A more moderate Democrat would probably have a significant opportunity to shift some voters in this election cycle, but Obama’s policy positions make it too big a leap for a whole lot of evangelical voters.

    Reply
  2. Michael W. Kruse Avatar
    Michael W. Kruse

    I think you saw some of this play out in some congressional elections last time around. Many of the Democrats who unseated Republicans were centrists. Like you, I suspect Obama is to far left for many Evangelicals who may be none to thrilled about the Republicans.

    Reply
  3. VanSkaamper Avatar
    VanSkaamper

    Yes, that’s an excellent observation. Centrists were what tipped the balance in ’06, but it’s being received as carte blanche by the more left-wing party leadership in DC…which could lead to less electoral success than expected…at least in the Presidential race.

    Reply
  4. Danny Gamache Avatar
    Danny Gamache

    The comments in these articles is very different from what I’m hearing on the ground, and in the classroom. (Yes, I work in Canada but I have a significant number of American students, friends and family members). It will be interesting to see what actually happens in November.

    Reply
  5. Michael W. Kruse Avatar
    Michael W. Kruse

    I now what you mean. I have a theory that little has changed in actually voting patterns. What has changed is that non-Republican Evangelicals have been “discovered” by the press. My parents would fall into this category. I was reading Ron Sider, Tony Campolo, and Jim Wallis thirty years ago and have always been around many non-Republican Evangelicals.

    Reply

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