Best Economic Indicator

Carpe Diem: Best Economic Indicator

Bdi2009
Both Dennis Gartman and Larry Kudlow have reported recently on the recovery in the London-based Baltic Dry Index (BDI), "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain." …

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2 responses to “Best Economic Indicator”

  1. Micheal,
    This am on NPR’s Morning Edition there was a report on the drop in air freight leading to an increase in shipping by sea. The comment was made that when you are not in a hurry to get something somewhere you ship by sea as it is the least expensive. The implication was that since the world economy is so bad shipping by sea made the most sense as nobody was in a hurry to receive raw materials and nobody felt a high demand to quickly sell finished goods.
    Could this be the cause for the increase you describe here? Could it just be the move from air to sea shipping, due to a slow world economy?
    Mickey

  2. I didn’t hear the NPR story but my guess is we are talking apples and oranges.
    BSI isn’t measuring all sea transport. It is measuring transport of raw materials like iron ore and grain. If I understand it correctly, the sea vessels used to transport these items are somewhat specialized. Thus, an increased demand for sea shipping of, say, auto parts or mail, would not affect the raw materials transportation industry. More likely it would affect other types of sea shipping and the railroad industry. That is my guess.
    Interesting question. I’ll keep my eyes open for more info. Thanks.

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