Carpe Diem: Forecasters: Economic Recovery in Q3 2009
The U.S. economy is headed for two quarters of negative growth in the first half of 2009, according to 43 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters project that real GDP will contract at an annual rate of 5.2% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second quarter of 2009. The survey participants expect economic recovery to begin in the third quarter of 2009. On a year-over-year basis, growth is expected to be -2.0% in 2009 and 2.2% in 2010. See chart above.
I wonder if these forecasters figured in the impact of the disastrous stimulus bill signed today. I suspect the economy will overcome the negative consequences in the short run, but the potential impact beyond this year is disconcerting.
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