The Post-Yesterday Church (Josh Rowley): Why the Mainline Decline?
Presbyterian pastor Josh Rowley has been doing a series on the decline of Mainline denominations. The link above is to part seven of that series; there are more to follow. He has been reviewing the findings of several studies. Interesting stuff!
I think that blog belongs to Josh Rowell, out in CA, not to Andy Rowell, who is in my neck of the woods.
Anyhow, he may be heading there, but I’d like to hear what his theory actually is, rather than just debunking other theories. Aging church populations does not answer the question; all congregations are aging at exactly the same rate, and none of us can avoid that. The question is why are younger members abandoning mainline churches, or are not joining them in the first place. The geographical question better approaches an answer (Christendom is alive and still moderately well here in the South, where conservative churches predominate).
I have no stake in the survival of the mainlines, but if I did, I’d also want some possible solutions and not just descriptions of the problem.
Holy cow! Its actually Josh Rowley. I first posted it as Andy Rowley. Then I thought, that isn’t right. I went back and looked it up and realized I was thinking Andy Rowell. But then when I went to make the edit I changed the name Andy Rowell instead of Josh Rowley. I gotta get my brain rewired.
Anyhow, I’ll be interested to see where he ends up as well. I just like recounting of the various studies.
The studies are interesting. I especially liked the observation that use of drums was a greater predictor of church growth than theology.
Michael, thanks for making your readers aware of my series. I just posted another entry.
Travis, thanks for confirming my suspicion about Christendom persisting in the South. On the subject of aging–church members are all aging at the same rate, but the higher average age of mainline Protestants means (I think) that they are dying at a faster rate than other Christians.
In any case, I admit that I’ve done more description than prescription. Of course, if I had the solution to church decline, then I’d be writing best-selling books, not mere blog posts.
Josh,
Thanks. I do find your series interesting. I guess my point about aging is that it (relative agedness of mainliners) isn’t a reason for the problem of declining, but is a symptom of that problem. Why are mainliners older, on average, in the first place? I think it has to be because they aren’t attracting (or birthing) new members in great enough numbers to offset their aging out. Similar to how Europe is rapidly aging because their birthrate isn’t high enough to replace those who die.
Higher birthrates among Southerners (and therefore more conservative churches) explains part of why those churches are at least not declining as fast. But I’m interested to know if any of the studies you’ve seen take a look at why people leave churches (or cease religious affiliation, or whatever).
Travis–
Mainline Protestants do have a lower birth rate than southern evangelical Protestants. Also, we have not retained the children we do have.
Why do people leave churches? I think part of the reason is the secularization of Western society, which I mention early in my series. Many people who leave churches join the growing ranks of the unaffiliated. The more secularized a culture, the less expectation of church involvement. In the South, with Christendom lingering, there still exists some cultural pressure to be involved in a church.
The FACT2005 survey (discussed on my blog) shows that conflict is one reason people leave churches. My hypothesis is that mainline churches have more theological and ideological diversity than evangelical churches, which leads to conflict, which leads to decline.
I know that is the belief among researchers at the PCUSA center in Louisville that most of those who leave Presbyterian congregations do not join other congregations. They simply drop off the church map.
We ran a story last week about Presbyterian decline —
http://www.tennessean.com/article/20090801/NEWS06/908010329/1023/Plunge+in+membership+shocks+Presbyterians
Here’s a clip:
“I am not saying the denomination will disappear in 50 years,” said Marcum, coordinator of research services for the Presbyterian Church (USA). “But it will be a lot smaller.”
The main cause for the decline is demographic, Marcum said. Like other struggling churches, Presbyterians have too many old people and not enough children in their pews. That’s clear from national baptism statistics. While the denomination buried more than 34,000 members last year, it baptized fewer than 26,000 children.
Presbyterians also attract few converts. Despite having more than 10,000 congregations, there were 6,296 adult baptisms.
“That’s about one baptism for every two churches,” Marcum said. “I don’t know how we can get Presbyterians, who shy away from evangelism, to start doing it. We’re more likely to get them to have more babies.”
Geography also plays a role. Many Presbyterian churches date to the 1880s and are now in places where people used to live. Since the 1960s, few new churches have been started, and so most Presbyterian churches aren’t in growing population centers. Last year the denomination started only 30 new churches, or one for every 330 or so churches. The Southern Baptist Convention, by contrast, starts one new church for about every 30 established churches
Bob, I think the geography is a big piece of it but we Presbyterians don’t help ourselves in the church planting process. We make it far too complex. I’m told that years ago the Book of Order had a provision chaplaincies, where a group could come under the care of the presbytery with minimal structural concerns. When it grew big enough it could easily morph into a full fledged congregation. Most of new churches were birthed out of existing congregations.
Now presbyteries try to plant full fledged churches in areas the presbytery decides need them. The success rate is very poor. Meanwhile, the missional enthusiasm of congregations planting congregations has atrophied.
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