New York Times: The Recession Has (Officially) Ended
The recession officially ended in June 2009, according to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of such dates.
As many economists had expected, this official end date makes the most recent downturn the longest since World War II. This recent recession, having begun in December 2007, lasted 18 months. Until now the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-5 and 1981-2, which each lasted 16 months.
The newly-declared end-date to the recession also confirms what many had suspected: The 2007-9 recession was the deepest on record since the Great Depression, at least in terms of job losses. …
… Professor Gordon also said that nearly every indicator that the committee looks at simultaneously reached its low point in June 2009, which made that month a relatively easy selection as the official turning point. The main exception to this trend was employment, which hit its trough six months later, in December 2009.
This lag has led many to refer to the current situation as a “jobless recovery,” and had even prompted suggestions that the weak job market should play a bigger role in determining recession start and end dates.
Professor Gordon notes, however, that the lag between a turnaround in gross domestic product and a turnaround in the job market was even worse after the 2001 recession. …
Leave a Reply