Isaac, my 18-year-old cat, has tabbylated the data. He predicts Republicans (and those who caucus with them) will have 50 seats in the Senate and 239 in the House. What do you think?
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10 responses to “What is your election prediction?”
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Based on what I am hearing in Texas where we have few swing voters and the R’s have been at an angry boil since before the 2008 election: I expect to see the Republicans looking for revenge and talking about dishing out some punishment (they won’t use the words revenge or punishment but if you can read between the lines I think it will be there).
Which means the R’s from Texas won’t be taking the advice you posted yesterday from the WSJ column.
And Rick Perry’s Presidential bid begins after the polls close tonight. He has a book coming out in two weeks. -
ceemac, if that becomes the MO for the national party, then I suspect the GOP will be done for.
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Awwww
You’re just one of those RINO’s.
Texas is a funny state. We have powerful Conservatives who are opposed to teaching evolution in school. But a lot of those same folks are Social Darwinists in practice.
There is an appreciation of the bully here. -
I predict a surprise invasion by Canada.
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One thing seems certain… the Blue Dog Democrats are making their last stand at The Little Big Horn… thanks to their partisan leadership.
Unfortunate… -
Michael, I think that the reason for the turnover in majorities is primarily due to growing recognition of, and dissatisfaction with the ruling class mentality in DC.
When it comes to Big Government, the choice between Republican and Democrat has become a choice between Big and Bigger.
When it comes to Big Business, I don’t know how one can credibly assert that Wall Street is in bed less with one than the other.
The Dems are going to get hammered for grossly irresponsible government spending that hasn’t dented the unemployment rate, and for the heavy-handed, hyper-partisan, cynical political chicanery used to ram through health care “reform.” The content of The Bill No One Read becomes more unpopular each week as people learn how it’s going to impact their costs, choices, and access to care.
The Tea Party movement was born because of the current administration, but it’s also aimed at purging big government establishment sycophants from the Republican Party as well. The driving forces behind this grass roots movement are anger about reckless government spending, and the related aim to steer the country back to the founder’s original vision as spelled out in the constitution.
If the GOP establishment doesn’t change course and buy into the Tea Party reformation, and if they think they can co-opt the Tea Party movement and the fiscal/constitutional conservatives that get elected because of it, then, as Michael says, they’re doomed.
If they don’t use their newly-won House and Senate seats to aggressively pursue that agenda (even in the face of certain Presidential vetoes), then the Republicans will be abandoned, and the most viable third party movement in a century will begin.
My prediction is that the Republicans gain more than 50 seats in the House. They’ll fall just short of re-capturing the Senate, but they’ll defeat Harry Reid (barring any voting machine tampering by the SEIU technicians in Nevada).
I also predict perhaps the most bitter, rancorous gridlock in our lifetime, because Barack Obama will be far less inclined to deal with Republicans than was Clinton. -
I see Dems holding the Senate 51-49. GOP takes house with 230.
Best chance for GOP in the senate is to squeak out WA state, and offer Lieberman a chairmanship for caucusing with them. -
David Brush
LOL. But what would they do with America when they take it?
Vanskaamper
ceemac was talking about Republicans taking revenge and dishing out punishment. That is what I responded to. If that becomes their agenda, the GOP is dead.
I’m not saying that the GOP shouldn’t press their agenda. But while there is a big Tea Party wave the only reason they are winning is because independents are drawn to their message. In 1994, Reps got cocky and that neutered their impact. In 2008, Dems got cocky and blew their advantage. The GOP better figure out they need not only to pursue their vision but to sell others on the vision as well. And they need to press for things that are tangible with wide support. Petty hearings and ideological driven pursuits that don’t have popular support are suicide. -
Allan, it will be interesting to see the character of the Dems once so many Blue Dogs are gone. If they lurch further to the left they may hurt themselves even more.
Kenton, my cat knew there would be 8 senate seats but he thinks there will be one surprise. -
It looks like the Blue Dogs have joined their counterparts the Moderate/Liberal/Rockefeller Republicans in nearing extinction.
Interesting tidbit on changing political landscapes. The city of Dallas went all wet in an election last night for the first time since the late 1800’s. I am 52 and when I was growing in the South up alcohol was THE social conservative issue. Liberals drank, Conservatives didn’t. The Social Conservatives didn’t come out to play in this election. My unsubstantiated assumption: In 2010 many if not most social conservatives drink.
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