We are now forty-eight hours into the news cycle for the tragedy in Arizona. I hear many commentators and religious leaders decrying the increasing violence in our culture, a common refrain each time an event like this occurs. Without diminishing the suffering and sorrow of those involved, it is important to keep in mind a larger context.
Here are two charts. The first one shows the rate of murders per 100,000 people. Note that the 2009 murder rate (5.0) is less than half its all-time high in 1980 (10.2). It is the lowest since 1964.
The second chart shows violent crimes per 1,000 persons. These are not crimes reported to police. These are people reporting victimization through the National Crime Victimization Survey administered by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. It is considered the most reliable indicator of actual incidents. Note that the 2009 rate (17.1) is less than one-third of the all-time high rate (51.7) in 1979. It is the lowest since the survey began in 1973.
We are not in an era of increasing violence.
Furthermore, it seems to be taken for granted by many that this was a politically motivated event. Some want to see a cause-and-effect relationship between rancorous politics and this killing. So far, I haven't seen much that confirms this. The killer appears not to have been motivated by opposition to health care legislation or raising taxes. He was not irritated about illiteracy, grammar, and language. Every indication is that he is suffering from severe mental illness.
I think we should grieve this tragedy and comfort those who mourn. But if we are going to address societal problems well, we must resist the impulse to fly off into emotional and ideological frenzies and actually address the problems that face us. So far, this incident says far more to me about mental health care and access to firearms than it does about politics.
Grace and peace to those whose lives have been so painfully touched by this horrific attack.
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