Kruse Kronicle

My 2012 Electoral College Prediction

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by

mwkruse
in

I went to Real Clear Politics and created my own 2012 Electoral College vote map. First, I looked at the map that shows Intrade standings as of now. (Here.) I give Romney all the states that are red or lean red. Then I look only at the six states that Obama is given less than a 67% chance of winning: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. I give Romney Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia. Obama wins Ohio and Wisconsin. Here is my map below. (Or you can see my own interactive map at Real Clear Politics. Make your own map while you are there.)

2012ECMap
With a tie, as I understand it, the incoming House would elect the president with one vote for each state delegation. The incoming Senate would elect the vice-president. I don't know what you do if you have a 25-25 tie in Congress.

Comments

5 responses to “My 2012 Electoral College Prediction”

  1. Josh Avatar
    Josh

    So, Romney’s best-case scenario is to get a tie by winning 6 (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia) of the 9 true toss-up states…?
    According to RCP, Romney hasn’t led in a single Nevada poll in 2012. Obama has led in 11 consecutive Nevada polls by an average of more than 3 points.

    Reply
  2. Michael W. Kruse Avatar
    Michael W. Kruse

    The post is tongue-in-cheek. I was just looking for a way to create a tie.
    For serious analysis. I think Romney’s most likely path is to win Ohio and Virginia (Intrade gives Obama 61% and 57% of winning, respectively.) That would give Romney 266 votes toward 270. He needs one more state. Win Iowa (57% Intrade) with 6 votes and he has 272.

    Reply
  3. Josh Avatar
    Josh

    Romney flipping FL, IA, NC, OH, and VA doesn’t seem all that likely either. Maybe.

    Reply
  4. Rob Decker Avatar
    Rob Decker

    Michael:
    Wow, though not likely, this is not at all unreasonable.
    Interesting how the 2010 census has helped the GOP. If Pres. Bush had lost Ohio in 2004, he would have lost (while still picking up NM and Nev.). But Romney really does have a chance. Also, I think Wis. is a real possibility, and even Mich. is a long-shot.
    I also wonder if some House state delegations would feel obligated to vote for the winner of the popular vote, rather than vote along party lines.
    Oh, a political junky’s dream (hopefully with less partisan drama than 2000, though).
    Rob

    Reply
  5. Michael W. Kruse Avatar
    Michael W. Kruse

    I have no idea who will win. Obama is the favorite but not by much. Small moves could have big consequences. I think I should have used more winks and nods with this post. I mostly think it would be fun to see something novel happen like a tie.

    Reply

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