Population Density and Political Preference.

Imagine you live in rural Montana. One hot August afternoon, you barbecue some meat on a grill. Your nearest neighbor, two miles away, decides to do the same. In fact, all your neighbors in a several square mile area … all two or three dozen of them … decide to barbecue that afternoon. Your individual actions create no problem.

Now move this thought experiment to Manhattan, New York. Thousands of people living on each city block in a neighborhood all decide to barbecue some meat. Now you have a problem.

There is nothing inherently wrong with barbecuing, and anyone who chooses to do so doesn’t pose a problem for anyone else. But when many people practice this freedom in densely populated areas, it can cause a problem.

It seems to me that increased population density creates both challenges, like the barbecue example, and opportunities, like the creation of mass transit. These realities require a degree and type of cooperation that is unnecessary in less densely populated areas; it’s not right or wrong, but different. Yet country folks view city dwellers as controlling, while city folks view country folks as anti-government and uncooperative.

Since the days of Barry Goldwater in the 1960s, the Republican Party has been deeply influenced by leaders from contexts of Western wide-open spaces. But the country is now heavily tilted toward a population that lives in densely populated areas.

I’ve seen other articles recently suggesting that we have less of a red vs. blue state problem and more of a city vs. non-city problem. Look at this chart from The Atlantic Cities taken from The Real Republican Adversary? Population Density:

Densityvotingchart

Read the whole article, What Republicans Are Really Up Against: Population Density.

I wonder if this demographic shift may be a key component of the party divide. Cause and effect are always murky. Maybe people with particular leanings move to contexts that mirror their values, but I suspect a bigger influence is that our demographic context shapes our socio-political outlook. I’m not suggesting this is the determining issue in our divide, but I think it may play a bigger role than we realize.

What do you think?


Comments

2 responses to “Population Density and Political Preference.”

  1. I’d look to some of the population studies that use agent-based modelling. Seems to be the best scientific way to capture the behavior of individual agents and their interconnections.

  2. I’d be interested in the types of arguments that sways certain areas as well. Does seem like an exercise of political science and statistics, but that was the engine powering both candidate’s campaigns (though the scuttlebutt was that Romney’s system crashed and no one got around to repairing it).

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