Tag: election 2008
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Intrade: Obama Leads by 138 Electoral Votes
The second presidential debate is tonight; the election is exactly four weeks away. Presently, Intraders believe Obama will win by 138 electoral votes. Here is how the map stacks up. Where Intraders give a candidate more than a 60% chance of winning in a state and the opponent less than 40%, I consider that state…
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Intrade Betting is Suspicious
FiveThirtyEight: Intrade Betting is Suspicious (HT: Greg Mankiw) In the past few weeks, I've done posts about Intrade and the presidential election. Here is an interesting piece on alleged discrepancies. There's something funny going on over at Intrade with respect to the pricing of the Obama and McCain contracts. Right now, Obama is trading at…