The second presidential debate is tonight; the election is exactly four weeks away. Presently, Intraders believe Obama will win by 138 electoral votes. Here is how the map stacks up. Where Intraders give a candidate more than a 60% chance of winning in a state and the opponent less than 40%, I consider that state solidly for the leading candidate. If either candidate is in the 40.1% to 59.9% range, then I consider the state leaning toward the leading candidate.
Intraders now give Obama a 69% chance of winning and McCain a 31.5% chance. It is not looking good for McCain, according to Intrade.
Real Clear Politics polling data tells a bit different story.
If McCain were to hold on to MO, IN, VA, and NC, as many pundits think he will, then he would have 57 additional votes, bringing his total to 220. A small tilt in his direction puts OH and FL cleanly back in his column, bringing his total to 267. If McCain adds NV, CO, PA, or NH, all being competitive, then he is over the magic 270 mark. Somewhere near 20% of voters say they could still be persuaded to change their vote, which means there is enormous room for swings in any direction in the last four weeks.
Palin threw Obama off balance for a couple of weeks, and the financial market meltdown has thrown McCain off balance. It will be interesting to see if Obama can sustain his present momentum.
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